Martin Foyle in action at Stoke in 1988

United travel to Stoke City tonight looking for a vital three points in their fight against the drop, a fate that’s looking increasingly likely as the season starts to draw to its conclusion.

Oxford’s record in the Potteries isn’t the worst, with three wins and three draws from 11 visits, and last season’s goalless draw at the Britannia Stadium could well have seen three points for the U’s but for Ole Romeny’s shot against the crossbar with the goal at his mercy. However, I won’t be too critical of the Indonesia international. He had been on the pitch a matter of minutes, making his U’s debut, and had fashioned the chance for himself; in addition, the angle was very tight, so let’s put it down as ‘one of those things’ and not beat him up about it. [Watch HERE]

The side’s first win in Stoke was in the first season in the top flight on a Wednesday evening in November 1985, when John Aldridge’s goal was enough to earn the three points.

The next victory came on a Tuesday night in April 1990, when Paul Simpson scored both Oxford goals in a 2-1 win.

United’s most recent win in Stoke, and their only one at the Britannia Stadium, was on the opening day of the 1999/2000 season, when a Matt Murphy header and a debut goal for Steve Anthrobus (what a signing he turned out to be) were enough to secure another 2-1 win [Watch HERE]. I was at that match and the eagle-eyed among you might be able to spot me getting trampled as the Bus celebrated his goal in front of the Oxford fans.

You can see all United’s results against Stoke HERE.

On this Date

The U’s have played 16 games on 25th February, winning seven and drawing three. However, tonight’s visit to Stoke is just the fourth away game they’ve played on this date.

The first four games the side played on 25th February were during the Southern League years, all at the Manor, when United beat Lovell’s Athletic (originally a works side from a sweet factory in Newport) 2-1 in 1959, but lost the other three matches, including against Lovell’s in 1956.

The first Football League match on this date was a 2-1 win against Mansfield Town in the Third Division in 1967, thanks to goals from prolific scorers Tony Jones and Graham Atkinson, before a 2-0 defeat at West Brom in the second tier in 1976.

In 1987, United fought out a goalless draw with Arsenal in the First Division [Watch HERE], while two years later (and a division lower), they drew 1-1 with Ipswich Town.[Watch HERE].

In 2006, United travelled to Wycombe Wanderers and lost 2-1, while the last away game on this date was at Chesterfield in 2017, when the U’s won 4-0 in League One thanks to Rob Hall’s opening goal followed by a stunning Conor McAleny hat-trick [Watch HERE].

Oxford’s most recent game on 25th February was six years ago against Accrington Stanley, when goals from James Henry and two from Matty Taylor secured a 3-0 home win [Watch HERE].

For United’s full record on 25th February, click HERE.

The Match

Results last night saw relegation rivals Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion both pick up points in 1-1 draws. The Foxes were leading Middlesbrough and the Baggies were one up against Charlton but both were pegged back. This leaves United five points adrift of City and six behind West Brom and safety. A difficult but not impossible task, although it does put a lot of pressure on tonight’s game.

The main problem that United face is their inability to score, with no goals in their last four matches and just one in their last six. In fact, in their nine games since Matt Bloomfield took over, the side has scored just three goals, and two of those were against Leicester. If this inability to put the ball into the net continues, then the team is effectively already relegated.

And it is difficult to see how this is resolved. Leading scorer Will Lankshear hasn’t scored since the FA Cup draw at MK, while Mark Harris has just two all season. A lot of expectation is therefore placed on Nik Prelec, fresh from signing a permanent contract, but there is little evidence to prove that he is the answer, with just one goal all season and he may not even be fit enough to be included tonight.

However, one thing going in Oxford’s favour is their resilience at the back (provided there are no more Norwich-style collective brainfarts). The recent goalless draws away to top-of-the-table Coventry City and second-placed Middlesbrough demonstrate the team’s ability to shut out some of the best attacking teams in the division. Coupled with the FA Cup game against Sunderland, who required a penalty (?) to win the tie, this could be the team’s secret weapon in their bid to escape the drop.

At Boro, a lot of people (me included) expected Bloomfield to set out the side with three at the back to make them harder to break down. Instead he continued with the same back four that did so well against the Mackems (with one exception – we’re coming to that). And indeed, Oxford twice struck the frame of the goal in the first half at the Riverside, which was closer to scoring than their hosts ever came.

So, which system will Bloomfield adopt tonight? Given the relative success of the back four, there seems little reason to revert to the five that has failed to set the season alight, unless the U’s head coach wants to try to surprise the Potters. I think that would be a mistake; if the back-four formation is reaping rewards, then stick with it.

There were two centre-backs that missed out on Saturday. Ben Davies has rarely let the side down when selected, but he has had his injury problems, and his exclusion from the squad might well be down to him having another knock. Meanwhile, Michał Helik lost his place to Christ Makosso and the Luton loanee has looked like the better option since he joined. There seems little doubt that Ciaron Brown and Jack Currie are the best options for the left side of the defence, but if the side play with a back five, Ruben Roosken has done well when playing as a wing back.

Of course, injuries may play a part in any decision, and it was disappointing to see Brodie Spencer limping from the field in the pre-match warm-up on Saturday. He had a fine game against Sunderland and looked every bit the right-back required. Having said that, the ever-reliable Sam Long replaced him and didn’t put a foot wrong, so even if Spencer isn’t available tonight, the back four is still a decent option.

The other injury blow from Saturday was the withdrawal of Jamie McDonnell, who was doing really well in keeping the midfield tight and protecting the defenders behind him. Apparently, his injury could keep him out for a while, but Bloomfield still has Will Vaulks, who is no slouch, and young Yunus Konak, who has been out of favour but could come in and do a job. Additionally, Brian De Keersmaecker is approaching fitness and might be in line for a comeback, if not tonight then possibly at the weekend.

It’s in the forward positions where there is scope for change, should Bloomfield wish to rotate the more dynamic players, which might be wise given there’s an even more important game against West Brom coming up on Saturday.

Stan Mills and Przsemysłav Płacheta are the main options for the right wing, with Mills having had the nod over Shemmy in the last couple of games. On the left, there would seem to be more possibilities, with Jeon Jin-Woo, Aidomo Emakhu, and Myles Peart-Harris all having featured there recently (and, somewhere or other, Siriki Dembélé is still in the squad, apparently).

I prefer MPH in the #10 role, although there is plenty of competition there too, with Romeny and Jamie Donley available. Romeny, of course, is also another option for the lone-striker role, but his fragility and lack of pace probably make him more suited to the role of creator than scorer (in addition to the fact that he hasn’t actually scored this season).

Despite being in a lowly 16th position in the Championship, Stoke have a 10-point gap on the relegation places and are highly unlikely to be dragged in to the mix. They are also 10 points off the play-offs, so the very definition of a mid-table side with little to play for apart from pride.

Against Leicester at the weekend, they looked dangerous going forward but a bit shaky at the back, surprisingly given that they have one of the best defensive records in the division. There were certainly enough cracks there to suggest that the U’s could have some joy going forward.

The Potters are suffering from a number of injuries (who isn’t, at this stage of the season?) including several long-term absentees. Players missing include Lewis Baker, Viktor Johannson, Robert Bozenik, Gavin Bazunu, Sam Gallagher, Divine Mubama, and Junior Tchamadeu, while Bosun Lawal has missed the last two games and deadline-day signing from Chelsea, Ato Ampah, arrived with a toe injury and hasn’t featured yet. None of these players are expected to be ready to return tonight.

In addition, Tomas Rigo missed the Leicester game for family reasons, but will probably be available to play this evening. Ben Pearson was withdrawn from the same game ten minutes into the second half, having received his ninth yellow card of the season, meaning one more will see him suspended for two games.

Stoke have won six and lost six of their 16 home games so far, so the Britannia is by no means a fortress for them this season. United have already won more away games (three) this season than last, so being on the road doesn’t have the fear factor that it may have held last season.

There is no reason to believe that United aren’t capable of upsetting the bookies’ odds and getting a vital win tonight. The only question is whether the team has the belief and finishing to do so. We like to think they have, but as always, there will be two teams on the pitch, so whatever United do, they also have to prevent Stoke from doing what they want.

It’s going to be tough, but UTFO…

PS: 87 games without a penalty…