Steve Foster in action at Ayresome Park

Oxford United face a daunting trip to second-placed Middlesbrough on Saturday, hoping not to fall further behind the rest of the pack in their quest to avoid relegation.

Sadly, Teesside is not a particularly friendly place for United, who have won just twice and drawn once in this particular part of the north-east in 15 visits.

In fact, their last five trips to Boro have ended in defeat, including last season’s visit when Michał Helik had the affrontery to give Oxford the lead before half-time. Such shenanigans were never going to be looked on kindly and the hosts turned the game around to win 2-1 [Watch HERE].

A far happier defeat occurred in the fifth round of the FA Cup in February 2017 in front of 3,000 travelling fans. United found themselves 2-0 down in the second half, but quickfire goals from a Chris Maguire free kick and a Toni Martinez strike on the rebound pulled the U’s level. Unfortunately, the hosts were to find a winner before the end but this is nevertheless a game fondly remembered by Oxford fans [Watch HERE].

The previous trip to the Riverside, in May 1998, was an end of season visit that Middlesbrough needed to win to achieve promotion to the Premier League. They did so handsomely, with Nicky Banger’s strike being a mere consolation. The game was more notable from an Oxford point of view for the sight of Paul Gascoigne wearing an Oxford shirt in the post-match celebrations. Of such things memes are born [Watch HERE (minus Gazza)].

You have to go back to March 1991 for the last time United won a point in Middlesbrough, a forgettable goalless draw that doubtless invokes images of drizzle, wind and random bleakness. Oxford’s first win at Ayresome Park was in August 1970, when a Ken Skeen double produced a 2-0 win for the U’s in Division Two (Championship).

The most recent win in Middlesbrough was on New Year’s Day 1995, when Trevor Hebberd scored the only goal of the game to help the Yellows on their way to their end-of-season promotion to the top flight.

You can see United’s full record against Boro HERE.

On This Date

If you think results at Middlesbrough are a bad omen, then you will be delighted when you see Oxford’s record in games they’ve played on 21st February. In the 15 times United have played on this date, they have lost just three times and have won on six occasions.

The first two victories were both in the Southern League days, away to Worcester City in 1953 and Bath City in 1959. However, Oxford have won all of the last four matches they’ve played on 21st February.

In 2009, Oxford beat Mansfield Town 1-0 at the Kassam Stadium thanks to a Craig Nelthorpe goal [Watch HERE], while three years later Scott Rendell and James Constable were on target in a 2-1 home win over Barnet. Mansfield were again the visitors in 2015 and this time two Alex MacDonald goals and a penalty from Danny Hylton earned the U’s an emphatic victory [Watch HERE].

United’s most recent game on this date was a visit to the Valley in 2017, when a long-range Conor McAleny striker won the game for the U’s. [Watch HERE]

All of United’s 21st February results can be seen HERE.

The Game

Following their performance in the 1-0 FA Cup defeat by Sunderland, United will be much more confident going into this game, with Matt Bloomfield selecting a line-up that most fans appreciated, with everyone in their correct positions and the U’s on the front foot.

The team will also be buoyed by their last away game, a battling goalless draw at top-of-the-table Coventry City, who most recently beat Boro 3-1 to leapfrog them and return to the top. Logically, this makes Oxford better than Middlesbrough, although unfortunately that sort of logic rarely applies in football.

As always, it is virtually impossible to tell in advance what line up, or even what formation, Bloomfield will pick for this match. The 4-3-3 from the Sunderland game definitely made the team more threatening and I think the players looked more comfortable, but if the manager wants to keep things tight and try to stop Boro’s first-time passing game, then the five at the back from the Coventry outing might be preferable.

Whatever shape is chosen, there are a few selection conundrums. Matt Ingram had his best game for United so far in the FA Cup game. He made some key saves and his distribution was generally far better than Jamie Cumming’s. However, there’s a reason why Cumming is first choice and Ingram only gets wheeled out for cup games, so I think it’s likely he’ll resume his place in goal. Having said that, if Ingram is selected, I don’t think it will significantly weaken the team.

If it’s a flat back four then it’s difficult to see Bloomfield changing the defence that did so well against Sunderland. Christ Makosso might have given away the match-losing penalty, but his general game was superb. He looks confident on the ball and isn’t averse to going on a run to relieve the pressure. Given recent performances, I suspect he’ll keep his place above Helik.

Ciaron Brown was arguably the weakest defender last weekend, but he is still a capable centre-back and did nothing to warrant being dropped, so I suspect Ben Davies will have to make do with a place on the bench if he’s fit. The full-back pairing of Brodie Spencer and Jack Currie is surely the strongest one at the club, and with neither Hidde ter Avest (still currently injured) nor Greg Leigh registered, there isn’t much competition. Sam Long is able to cover right back and Ruben Roosken can do a job at left back if necessary, but neither are better than the incumbents.

Obviously a back five will change the dynamic, in which case it will probably be Sam Long on the right of the three centre backs, with Makosso in the middle and Brown on the left. Just don’t play Longy on the left. Both Spencer and Currie can play at wing back, as can Roosken on the left, although if Spencer is unavailable or has to be replaced, only Stan Mills of the wingers can really play in that position, with Przsemysłav Płacheta’s defensive duties being something of a weak link in his overall game.

The absence of Brian De Keersmaecker in midfield is a problem. Will Vaulks covered there in the Sunderland game and had probably his best match of the season, but despite his leadership qualities and his long throw, the Belgian remains a better option if he’s fit. Jamie McDonnell can also play the defensive midfield role, as can Yusuf Konak, and both are aggressive players who can win the ball and play simple passes. That might be exactly what is required against Middlesbrough.

The club captain, Cameron Brannagan, is an inspiration to his team mates but he has had his minutes managed recently, being taken off with around 20 minutes remaining in both the Norwich and Sunderland games. Nevertheless, when he’s available he has to start. He drives his colleagues forwards and unsettles opposition players with his terrier-like qualities. Plus, if we get a penalty… hahahahaha…

Up front, Will Lankshear is the only real option to start. Sadly, Mark Harris hasn’t proven himself to be a worthy Championship striker, despite his start to last season and his well taken goals against Ipswich and Leicester this term. Ole Romeny is probably best used from the bench against tiring defenders, given his lack of pace and his apparent frailty in the tackle. If Nik Prelec has recovered from his injury, then it’s possible that he might be considered a decent alternative to a no-doubt knackered Lankshear, but even so, it would be risky to start him given how long he’s been out.

Which leaves the wide players and/or the #10 role. Mills is currently ahead of Płacheta in the pecking order on the right, although it would be interesting to see Shemmy, as a primarily left-footed player, playing on the opposite flank. On the left, it has recently been a straight choice between Aidomo Emakhu and Jeon Jin-Woo, with the latter certainly a more exciting attacking player, although Emakhu’s more conservative play might be better served against Boro.

That really leaves Myles Peart-Harris and Jamie Donley fighting over the #10 role, should that formation be preferred. MPH was unavailable for Sunderland, so obviously a lot depends on how fit he is this weekend. He has been quite impressive since he signed and is always looking to move the ball forward, even in his appearances on the left wing. Donley did well in his comeback cameo against the Mackems and doubtless the management will be hoping that he can rekindle his Spurs partnership with Lankshear that worked so well in PL2 games.

Boro’s defeat at Coventry came after a run of six straight league wins, including 4-0 batterings of Southampton and Preston North End. Before the game at the CBS Arena, they had an impressive win at Bramall Lane, beating Sheffield United 2-1, so one has to conclude that it’s highly unlikely that Oxford will get anything from this match.

However, that’s what everyone thought before the Coventry trip and this season the U’s do have a weird habit of performing better against the better sides. They’ve already taken four points off Coventry, three off Ipswich, and three off Derby, and have drawn with Millwall and Middlesbrough in the reverse fixture, so if we’ve learned anything from our sojourn in the Championship so far, it’s not to take anything for granted.

Middlesbrough will be without Alfie Jones and Leo Castledine and have a doubt over Tommy Conway, who went off injured at Coventry, although they could give a debut to loan signing Jeremy Sarmiento. Whoever plays, they will have to break down an Oxford defence that, Norwich aside, has looked reasonably resilient since Bloomfield’s arrival. We suspect Boro will win, but it will be closer than many might think (bear in mind that there’s a reason why we don’t normally do predictions).

UTFO

And don’t forget the Oxford United Women’s FA Cup 5th round tie against Charlton Athletic on Sunday. That’s a game that should be worth a watch.