Hugh Curran scores against Wrexham in March 1978

They say it’s the hope that kills you, but after Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Derby there’s precious little hope left for United now.

Of course, while survival remains mathematically possible we will continue to be tormented by thoughts that we can stay up, whatever common sense tells us. However, I can’t shake the feeling that we’ve left it too late to do the necessary.

Dropped points recently against Charlton, Hull, and Portsmouth, combined with Pompey, West Brom, and Blackburn securing unlikely wins for themselves, mean that it’s an unlikely sequence of results now required to get us over the line to ensure Championship football next season.

On Tuesday evening we welcome Wrexham to the Kassam in a match that the tag ‘must-win’ really can be applied to (even if we can’t actually be relegated on Tuesday whatever happens).

Visits by Wrexham don’t come around too often. We’ve played them just 12 times in Oxford, winning five and losing four.

Our first home game against them came in our first Football League promotion season in April 1965. On that occasion, the U’s ran out 4-0 winners, thanks to a John Fahy goal and a Tony Jones hat-trick. We didn’t play them again for a further 12 years, when our last home match of the season in May 1977 ended 2-2.

In March 1978, Peter Foley and Hugh Curran were the scorers for United in a 2-1 win (see main pic), and five years later the U’s were at it again, beating the Welsh side 2-0 at the Manor.

Back in the third tier for two seasons in the mid-90s, the U’s were held to two home goalless draws by Wrexham, in April 1995 [Watch HERE] and a year later. The four home defeats came in successive meetings in the early 2000s (including this seven-goal episode [Video] in October 2000) before Oxford got back on track against the Red Dragons, beating them 1-0 in the Conference in April 2009 [Watch HERE] and again a year later, on Milk Cup Final Day in 2010, the last time that Wrexham visited our fair county [Watch HERE]. (Why do most of our home games against Wrexham seem to have been played in April?)

See all Oxford’s results against Wrexham HERE.

On This Date

Look away now if you believe (wrongly) in omens. Of the 16 games that United have played on 21st April, the U’s have won just three (and only one of those at home).

The first three games on this date came during the Southern League years, including a 1-0 home defeat by Cambridge City in 1962, in Oxford’s second successive title-winning season, their last before election to the Football League.

United’s first win on this date came at Walsall in 1979, courtesy of a Jason Seacole goal. while in 2001, the Yellows went down to a 6-2 defeat at Bristol Rovers [Watch HERE, if you dare].

Two years later, Oxford were again beaten by Bristol Rovers, this time by a mere 1-0 at home. In 2007, United beat Stafford Rangers 2-0 in the Conference [Couldn’t find any watchable video clips].

United’s last win on this date was in 2018 when James Henry scored the only goal at Doncaster Rovers [Watch HERE], while United’s last game on 21st April was last season‘s 1-1 draw at Cardiff, featuring Cameron Brannagan’s outrageous goal [Watch HERE].

You can see all United’s 21st April results HERE.

The Game

The phrase is ‘now or never’. I suspect ‘never’, but one of the beautiful things about football in general and Oxford United in particular is that it is never predictable.

It seems like every game we’ve been saying it’s a must-win. Now it really is a must-win. Probably. Failure to get three points on Tuesday night really is likely to signify the end of United’s time in the Championship, for a season at least.

Which would be a bit of a shame. It took 25 years for the U’s to regain the heights of second-tier football after losing them in 1999. If it’s going to be another quarter century before we’re back at this level, I suspect that I – and the majority of people reading this – will be dead (even without Trump-induced world conflict).

To that end, it’s clear that head coach Matt Bloomfield has to take a risk or two in order to send Wrexham back to Clwyd with nothing to show for their travels. Maybe not to go gung-ho from the outset; it is less likely that Oxford will win if they find themselves 3-0 down at half-time, for example.

But certainly it the score is level or, god forbid, United are chasing the game with half an hour to go, then the handbrake will need to be released and the team will really have to go for it. Maybe even if the team is winning – we’ve all seen what happens when the boys try to sit on a lead.

To that end, it seems prudent for Bloomfield to make at least a couple of changes to the side that failed to compete at Pride Park on the weekend. In particular, the displays from Myles Peart-Harris and Jamie Donley were disappointing. I’m not casting blame; there were very few players that came away from Derby with positive reviews, but the two mentioned both seem in need of a break as neither of them looked as athletic as they have in previous games.

Maybe Mark Harris and Jeon Jin-Woo or Aidomo Emakhu could be preferred, as they all add some attacking flair to a side that is in need of something dynamic in the final third. There’s also possibly an argument to start with the EFL Community Player of the Year, Will Vaulks, or young Jamie McDonnell in the midfield role, to complement Brannagan and Yunus Konak.

I wouldn’t make any changes to the rearguard unless Jack Currie is fit to start, in which case I’d drop Brodie Spencer to the bench, ready to come on for either Currie or Sam Long should the occasion require.

One thing I would NOT do is play the 3-4-3 formation that has largely failed when used previously. Having said that, with no particular knowledge of how Wrexham set up, it may well be that a change in shape will have a positive effect. Who knows?

Wrexham, sadly, will be as up for it as Oxford should be, seeing that the Welsh side sit in seventh place, just two points adrift of Hull City with three games to go. If Ryan Reynolds doesn’t want the season to be a washout, he’ll be hoping for at least a play-off place to end the campaign.

Their form has faltered slightly since their FA Cup exit to Chelsea, with three wins from their last eight Championship games. Still a healthy enough return to suggest that they’re not yet a spent force. Last time out they beat a beached Stoke City side 2-0 to keep the pressure on Derby and Hull, their two main rivals for sixth place.

The Wrexham danger men are Josh Windass, son of former U’s player Dean, and ex-Oxford forward Sam Smith. The pair were both on target in Wrexham’s last away win, 2-1 at Sheffield United exactly one month ago.

With such a big game for both clubs, a lot will depend on who can handle the occasion better. We know that Brannagan is one player that can keep his nerve on the big stage, but how about the other United players. I think that in defence we’re well sorted, so if there are any issues they’re likely to be further up the pitch.

Let’s hope that it’s Wrexham that feel the pressure. As usual, the first goal is likely to be key.

UTFO