CARDIFF CITY 1 OXFORD UNITED 1

The Match

Most important game of the season. Worst performance of the season. Best goal of the season.

You thought the last FV was a short one, well I could quite easily leave this one as the shortest ever and stop now but I’m not going to because it is not quite that simplistic and there is much more that can be said.

Most important game of the season? Yes, until the next most important game of the season and they become more and more important as we’ve not yet crawled over the line and there are only two games remaining.

Worst performance of the season? From an attacking perspective, yes. Given the lack of entertainment that comes with that, yes. Unfair on the defence though who manfully won us the point, so no.

Best goal of the season? I can’t remember many but guys on the journey back were reeling off some very good ones too. I’d have to watch them all again to decide who I am going to award this meaningless accolade to. Cameron Brannagan’s strike almost certainly wins the most precious goal of the season thus far though.

Considering that we were playing a team below us in the table who had only picked up five points from their last five games the stats provide the most damning of indictments on our performance – or should that be our ambition to win the game? We didn’t have one corner and only had three touches in the Cardiff box. Allegedly we had two shots. Other than the goal I can’t remember another. It can’t have been very testing for American keeper Ethan Horvath.

For most of this game it was a matter of attack against defence. We are either incapable of playing our way out of trouble by keeping the ball and moving it up field in our possession or that wasn’t part of our game plan.

Early on Callum O’Dowda looked a very real threat. Much more of a player than when he first appeared for us. We could have done with a Sam Long reducer on COD such as he produced at the very beginning of the play-off final. Sam, who had travelled to Cardiff with the team, was due to start but his partner decided otherwise by going into labour. Our full-back got there in time. Sometimes you can get from a to b quickly, sometimes you can’t.

Cardiff weren’t very good either but by necessity set about trying to win the game. Clearly much more likely than us to do so based on the way each side was playing but a draw looked quite a probable outcome. And if it was to be a draw, a goal-less one would have been the best bet.

At the break that’s how it stood, but 11 minutes later that was no longer the case. Chris Willock, brother of Newcastle’s Joe, got a cross in and Yousef Salech was bigger and stronger than not one, but two Oxford players, to head home. They were defender Joe Bennett and midfielder Alex Matos. Not the tallest of men. The ball had bypassed our centre-halves.

As we’d been doing nothing attack wise that had to change if we were to salvage a point. The game didn’t change much in this regard but we did become marginally better. Brannagan was so very nearly able to take a return pass from Mark Harris which would have put him through on goal. He was mightily frustrated that he wasn’t able to do so. One could feel the hurt coming off him that we were losing and in quite deep trouble.

Then Tyler Goodrham, who let’s face it along with a few others has been very ordinary of late, became a magic little man for a few seconds. Little twists and turns and beating of opponents. He won a free kick so far out that a shot on goal was never on. In the stands we were desperate. We knew we hadn’t been anywhere near their goal. Fans wanted a shot but knew this wasn’t on. “Too far out to have a shot” was heard at least once.

And then – wow. A shot was on. It wasn’t just a shot it was propelled like a rocket. Tyler rolled the ball perfectly into Brannagan’s path and that was it. Much of our striking of the football this season has been poor but of late it has been noticeable that Bran has been back on it.

We couldn’t believe it. After the initial split second of being astounded it was pure joy. Having watched replays over and over it wasn’t just the power of the shot but how it moved away from Horvath that was so impressive. No player on this planet could have done better.

Even though Brannagan is a Mancunian he’s become one of our own, he’s been with us for so long. His celebration right in front of us was as heartfelt as can be. So much emotion spilling from a man who is playing through the pain barrier with the help of injections.

1-1 then with eleven minutes of regulation time still to go. Dilemma for the manager, do we hold what we have or go for the win? Going for the win probably/possibly increasing the chance of losing. If at any time the number one priority had been to get all three points then we would surely have seen some minutes from Stan Mills on the pitch.

It was though rather reassuring to see the return of Elliott Moore, on for Bennett, in the 82^nd minute.

They looked more like getting another goal than we did but other than one quite close shave we saw the game out.

The defenders can argue otherwise but we were lucky having played so poorly elsewhere on the field. One brief moment saved us.

And talking of luck referee Farai Hallam did us a massive favour by only showing Shemmy Placheta a yellow card for a terrible challenge quite early in the game. I thought it should have been a red, all those around me thought it should have been a red and those I know watching at home commented on social media that it should have been a red. It was a moronic thing to do. If I was his manager I would have been livid. I assume Gary Rowett was. Greg Leigh came out after the break; Placheta did not.

Hallam is very inexperienced refereeing at this level. It wasn’t just this decision but many others that were questionable. Mostly we thought he was giving them things that we weren’t getting. In typical football fan style Cardiff fans on social media thought it was the other way round. If I was one of them after the non-sending off I would likely have thought the same.

Beforehand they were almost resigned to relegation and this result will have done nothing to change that. Our second biggest away following of the season have much more hope than that but know there’s still probably a fair bit to do.

Travel

There may be those who regularly travel to away games by train who will think what are you on about, we get this all the time. It is what it is.

I use the train a couple of times a season but mostly travel by car. On this occasion as all the people I usually travel with were staying away in the area I was looking for alternatives. I considered driving but that’s not good for the environment. Petrol cost would have been £30 – £35. Return train fare from Bicester, a bit over fifty quid. Outrageous. Splitting the ticket? Experienced campaigners will have been straight on that. Thought I’d give it a go. Bicester to Swindon return and Swindon to Cardiff return just over thirty quid. Twenty pounds saved and no more expensive than petrol as no-one to share the cost with. And the 18:18 on the way back goes straight through to Didcot.

I thought train companies had been instructed to make ticket prices more simple and transparent and to show the cheapest option. How on earth can exactly the same journey be two different prices depending on how the tickets are purchased? Don’t complain though because it will be the cheapos that disappear no doubt. Mad world.

Despite the warnings of delays and disruptions due to urgent bridge repairs between Bristol Temple Meads and Cardiff Central, which was communicated not long after I’d bought my tickets, the outward trip could not have gone more smoothly. I left my house at 7:50 and was in Cardiff at 10:40.

Coming back was a different story altogether. On the way out the ticket inspector informed us that, because the 18:18 was cancelled, tickets could be used on previously restricted trains. On returning to Cardiff Central after the match when asking at the ticket barrier about trains back we were told the 18:18 was running after all. Result. It left on time. It was packed but I managed to get a seat.

However, it got no further than Bristol Parkway. No proper announcement was made but we all got off. Signal failure apparently. Eventually the next train was announced. It was quite a wait. No chance of a seat this time and crammed on. Not going through to Didcot either. So a wait in Swindon. Then another wait when we got there before Oxford and then back to Bicester. I walked back through my front door at 22:50. Fifteen hours away all told.

Others may have had it worse. Some of those who left Cardiff later ended up in Reading because Didcot trains had been cancelled. No wonder people prefer to jump in their cars.

Being a tourist

Having arrived so early I took advantage for an hour or so. Whilst some buildings in the centre are very run down and neglected Cardiff imho is not “a shit hole” and I did not “want to go home”. Well not until after the final whistle. Yet once again we had that song. It’s just one of those things that grinds my gears. People stood around me with who I had sensible discussions about football were joining in. Seems I’m a bit of an outlier here.

It’s free to wander into the grounds of Cardiff Castle and the grade II listed Castle Arcade was an interesting collection of old shops and cafes.

A lifetime ago I used to work in Cardiff on and off but never had time to have a poke about as I did quickly on this visit. Back then, as you alighted from the station, you were greeted by the powerful but welcoming smell of the Brains brewery.

That aroma is now gone but the beers remain. In 2019 Brains switched from its city centre site to an out of town site. They were hit badly by the pandemic and in December 2020 handed over the running of their 156 pubs via a 25-year lease-back deal to Marston’s. Often when so many changes have taken place the product becomes an inferior one but I thoroughly enjoyed my Brains in the Old Arcade in Church Street. As I had a walking football commitment the following day I rationed myself to three half pints. The other two were in the Tiny Rebel opposite Cardiff Arms Park. So very tempting to upgrade to a pint such was the quality of the beer.

The remainder of the 24/25 season

If we had lost to Cardiff they would only be three points behind us but salvaging a draw means the gap is still six points with just six to play for. We’ve got a superior goal difference to the tune of five. If they were to win both their games and we were to lose both of ours they’d still need to turn that around to get past us. Bottom club Plymouth are also six points behind us but their goal difference is so bad there is no way they could finish above us.

The other three teams still below us are Luton (46 pts), Derby (46 pts) and Hull (48 pts). We’re on 49.

Whatever way you look at it we’re nearly safe. Some fans think we’ve already got enough points, many that one more will do it. Fixtures will have been looked at over and over, spreadsheets will have been created, scores guessed at, reviewed and updated. Heads will have been scratched.

The worst case scenario is that even two more points won’t be enough. Luton can still get to 52 points. They’ve got Coventry at home and West Brom away. If Plymouth were able to turn the Sky Blues over then why not Luton? Kenilworth Road will be rocking. The Baggies have fallen away and have nothing to play for. If Derby win their last two games, which includes beating Hull they too can achieve 52 points. And if the Tigers then win their other game they will have 51 with a substantially better goal difference than we do.

On the other hand we could be home and dry before we kick-off against the Black Cats. Luton v Coventry has a 12:30 start and if the home team don’t win that will be enough as long as we don’t get hammered in our final two games.  

There’s still the question about the sort of side Sunderland will put out and what their attitude will be. With them being stuck in fourth place for a little while they’ve rested key players ahead of the play-offs but the manager has now said he’s going to put a strong side out in preparation for those fixtures. Surely we’ll want it more. Surely they’ll have worries about injuries.

And if we need something in the very last game at Swansea – they were in the dog fight at the bottom but with five wins on the spin are now top half having gone above Watford, Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich. They’ll be on the beach by then won’t they?

Looking up and not down, Preston have been on a terrible run having only picked up two points from their last six games and are now only one better off than us. They’re at home to Plymouth on Saturday. Just because they can’t catch us doesn’t mean Argyle don’t have anything to play for. There is a very remote chance they could escape. Their relegation odds are now 1/20 though so very unlikely. The odds for others are Cardiff (1/5), Luton (8/13), Derby (13/8), Hull (8/1), Oxford (16/1), Preston (33/1) and Stoke, who are already on 50 points, (75/1). They were hammered by Leeds 6-0 in their last game. 

Season 25/26

I’m not sure how long Gary Rowett has a contract with OUFC for. Given the way we’re playing it is understandable if people think it was just to get us to the end of the season without being relegated. That’s not so. Here are some quotes from Chairman Grant Ferguson when Rowett arrived.

“When we met him, he was questioning us about what the plan was. He didn’t want a six-month role, that wasn’t of interest to him, he doesn’t have an escape clause if we end up getting relegated back to League One. He wants a project that he can see through to completion, and that’s what sealed it for us and that he was the right guy”.

Then there were quotes about the way GR gets his teams playing. “We did a lot of research on his playing style and he’s very blunt about it, he said ‘my teams will be hard to beat, we’ll shore up the back’.

“But if you actually do a bit of research into where he made big impacts in the teams that he’s managed before, it’s actually up front.”

“He takes the shoring up at the back as the gating factor. You’ve got to have that, and then he does very well in bringing about change in some cases in players who have been below par in terms of confidence and turning them back into the players they can be.” (The use of the term gating factor here has confused me but many things do)

I get the defensive bit of this totally. We’ve heard what we’ll get from him from fans of other clubs that he’s managed. It’s easy to forget that he only came to us in late December. With the football not being very pleasing on the eye it seems much longer but what the vast majority of us want is to stay up by whatever means. And it looks like he’s achieved that.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if we had to go into next season with this squad as it is we would go down, no question.

There are a few football fans about who would rather see an entertaining game in which their team loses 5-4 than a dour 1-0 victory. My attitude to them is don’t attach yourself to a team and say you are a supporter then. Pick and choose what you think will be the biggest goal-fest each weekend. A bit the same with those who say well if my team gets relegated we’re not going to get beaten every week, we’ll see us score more goals and get more wins. I get that a tiny bit more but it’s still not for me. Perhaps this is quite easy to say because we’ve only had this style for four months. If we were to watch the same season after season perhaps my attitude would change. And anyway defensive football isn’t guaranteed to bring about the desired outcome and there’s no denying that losing playing that way is much harder to take than losing playing entertaining attacking football.

I’d already heard it said that Rowett isn’t the man to take us forward before our visit to Wales. After this match there were quite a few commenting that they can’t put up with football like this week in week out. I have a huge amount of sympathy with that opinion but I still want the points. It is all a bit of a dilemma.

Rowett making big impacts up front on the teams he’s managed is news to me.

In all this we must bear in mind exactly what our manager has to work with compared to the bigger clubs with bigger budgets in the Championship and also question what say he has in player recruitment.

He became Millwall’s manager in October 2019 and was there four years. It is worth looking at his record for the Lions.

2019/20 – finished 8^th with 68 points. The club in 6^th place had 70 points.

2020/21 – finished 11^th with 62 points. The club in 6^th place had 77 points.

2021/22 – finished 9^th with 69 points. The club in 6^th place had 75 points.

2022/23 – finished 8^th with 68 points. The club in 6^th place had 69 points.

Millwall are not a big Championship club.

In none of these seasons were there many goals for or against. Starting with 2019/20: F57 A 51, F 47 A 52, F53 A 45, and F 57 A 50.

Question – would you settle for these top half finishes in the next four years playing Gary Rowett style football?