United celebrate Steve Aylott’s winning goal against West Brom at the Manor in 1974

Whichever way you slice it, Saturday’s game against West Brom is make-or-break time for United. Lose, and the gap to safety becomes an eye-watering nine points; win, and the U’s will be just three points behind the Baggies with a run of supposedly easier fixtures to come.

It will come as a relief to some, therefore, that the U’s have a relatively decent home record against WBA, having won four and lost three of the 12 meetings so far in Oxford (the less said about our record at the Hawthorns the better).

The first win came in Albion’s first visit to our fair county in April 1974, when Steve Aylott scored the only goal of the game to secure the two points (see top photo). United had to wait until March 1997 to taste their next home victory against the Baggies, when Matt Murphy’s goal was enough to separate the sides [Watch HERE].

That heralded a run of three straight home wins over the Throstles (honestly, that’s one of their nicknames). In February 1998, goals from Super Kevin Francis and equally super Phil Gilchrist secured a 2-1 win [Watch HERE] for Malcolm Shotton’s side against former (and future) United boss Denis Smith in Shotts’ first home game as manager.

Just seven months later, an inspired Oxford side swept Denis “What’s the Score?” Smith’s Baggies aside with a 3-0 masterclass, thanks to goals from homegrown trio Joey Beauchamp, Paul Powell, and Simon Marsh [Watch HERE – warning: 24 minutes long (but worth it)].

That was the last time the sides met in the Shire until last season‘s 1-1 draw, when Dane Scarlett was on target for the U’s with a late headed equaliser to stop West Brom going top of the table and preserve Oxford’s unbeaten home record [Watch HERE].

You can see all United’s results against West Brom HERE.

On this Date

If you think United’s home record against West Brom is cause for optimism, wait until you check out the side’s previous results on 28th February!

Of the 14 times that Oxford have played on this date, they have lost just twice and have won seven times (although, it has to be said, not since 1998).

The first four games the team played on 28th February were all victories: three times in the Southern League before their first Football League win, in 1970, against Bolton Wanderers in Division Two (Championship), with two goals from Northern Ireland international David Sloan and one from Ken Skeen.

The next time United won on this date was their only away victory on 28th February, when they travelled to Hull City and beat them 1-0 through Mick Vinter’s goal as the U’s were on their way to the Third Division title in 1984.

The last two times that United won on this date were both at home to Stockport County. In 1995 United hammered the Hatters 4-0 as they attempted to bounce back from the previous campaign’s relegation from the second tier, but fell just short of the play-offs [Watch HERE]. Three years later, both sides had made it to Division One (Championship) and faced each other again, this time Oxford running out 3-0 winners [Watch HERE].

The last time that Oxford played on 28th February was in 2015, when they travelled to Portsmouth in League Two and fought out a goalless draw [Watch HERE if you can be bothered].

HERE are all United’s 28th February games.

The Game

Following Oxford’s devastating defeat at Stoke City, the odds are really against the side avoiding relegation. It certainly piles on the pressure for Saturday against a team that United really must beat if they are to have even a slight chance of being in the Championship next season.

The whole club will have been buoyed by the news that the Section 106 agreement was signed on Thursday, effectively sealing planning permission for the new stadium barring an unlikely overturning of the decision on Judicial Review. All being well, construction could start as early as May or June, with completion ready for the start of the 2027/28 season.

On the debit side, though, the side’s injury problems seem to be conspiring against them. Just as Nik Prelec returns to the subs bench at Stoke, and does reasonably well when coming on, comes the news that Brian De Keersmaecker has had an operation on his shoulder, dislocated against QPR and exacerbated at Leicester, and will be out for the rest of the season.

With Jamie McDonnell’s campaign also seemingly over, this leaves the team really light in midfield, with captain Cameron Brannagan having to have an ice bag on his calf after coming off at the Bet 365 Stadium on Wednesday, there could also be doubts about his availability, leaving just Will Vaulks and Yunus Konak of the squad’s fit midfielders unless Jamie Donley has recovered now.

In defence, Brodie Spencer could still be absent, leaving Sam Long to cover at right-back unless Hidde ter Avest is considered ready to start after his lengthy absence. Ben Davies’ status also remains unclear, with Wednesday’s goalscorer Ciaron Brown set to retain his place, probably partnering Christ Makosso, who seems to be preferred to the unfortunate Michał Helik, while Jack Currie has pretty much made the left-back position his own, with Greg Leigh apparently the one to miss out of the 25-man squad.

Stan Mills’ performance on Wednesday was one of the few positives, so I expect him to start again tomorrow, especially given that Przsemysłav Płacheta was reportedly injured, hence missing out at Stoke. On the left, Aidomo Emakhu gave his best performance since joining the club when he replaced Jeon Jin-Woo at half time at Stoke, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start, with the South Korea international on the bench.

Myles Peart-Harris started well on Wednesday but faded in the second half, but with none of the substitutes who might replace him in the #10 role performing particularly well, he is likely to retain his place. Ole Romeny once again failed to live up to his billing, although he has never had a proper run in the side to build up a partnership or get into some rhythm.

Up top, Will Lankshear impressed with his battling qualities and hold-up play and was dead unlucky to see one improvised shot hit the bar, but again Mark Harris failed to take the opportunity to impress off the bench, meaning Matt Bloomfield will probably be relying on Prelec to either start in place of Lankshear or come off the bench to replace him.

West Brom come to the Kassam with James Morrison as caretaker manager following Eric Ramsay’s sacking after the team’s home draw with Charlton Athletic on Tuesday. They haven’t won any of their last 12 games, since a 2-1 win over QPR on 29th December, although they have drawn at Swansea, Derby, and Birmingham during that run.

In the reverse fixture in November, Lankshear gave United a 54th-minute lead, but a Leigh own goal two minutes later was followed by an Aune Heggebo header to give Albion a comeback victory.

It cannot be overstated how important it is for United’s season that they win this fixture. A defeat will, to all intents and purposes, condemn the U’s to relegation back to League One, while a draw isn’t that great either. Even with a win, Oxford’s situation looks pretty bleak, but it would at least give them a fighting chance while still relying on results elsewhere to go their way.

Considering it’s still February and there’s two months of the season remaining, this might be an over-dramatisation; after all, nobody gets relegated this early in the campaign (sorry, Sheffield Wednesday fans, if any are reading this – extenuating circumstances and all that). But I don’t think so. Brown’s goal on Wednesday was the first in five games, and only the fourth since Bloomfield took over in mid-January. If you don’t score, you don’t win (apologies for stating the bleeding obvious).

Hopefully, the return of Prelec can add to United’s firepower, although he has scored just once this season so far. Despite all evidence to the contrary, I remain optimistic going into the game, at least for this match, if not the remainder of the season.

The big question, though, is where to drink pre-game: the Bird, J’s, or the Golden Ball. One thing’s for sure: I ain’t going to this one sober.

UTFO

PS: 88 games without a penalty (come on refs, do us a favour). I had to laugh at the BBC Radio Stoke commentators on Wednesday bemoaning their luck at not having been awarded a penalty all season – bloody amateurs.