Gino van Kessel wheels away after scoring against MK on New Year’s Day 2018

Following the season opener at Leyton Orient in the League Cup last Saturday, a game rendered virtually irrelevant by the various off-pitch issues affecting the club, the season proper starts this Saturday with a home game against Milton Keynes in League One (or Division Three for the purists).

Oxford fans could be forgiven for not looking forward to the game too much, as the club is still coming to terms with the registration embargo imposed by the EFL for failing to provide funding for the full season; a new rule introduced as recently as 15th May this year. And while the club claims that it is not in financial trouble and the issue is one of timing as opposed to cash flow, there are nevertheless unsettling noises surrounding the club.

Not least of these is the lack of clear, transparent communication from the board to let fans know what the hell is going on. What does the chairman Dusan Bogdanovic mean with that statement? What steps are being taken to ensure the embargo will be lifted in time for the January transfer window? Is this tied into the stadium development, with the club waiting for any possible Judicial Review to be thrown out before proceeding?

In addition, there remains a whole lot of speculation (and let’s be clear, it seems that’s all there is) regarding Stan Mills and his alleged £2 million move to Preston North End. Have Preston submitted a bid? Has it been accepted, subject to conditions, or rejected out of hand? Is Mills in contention for a team place this weekend or next? Is Stan’s dad, Danny, poking at the wasps’ nest with a particularly shitty stick? Or is it all just a regular part of the annual transfer window bollocks that clubs and players have to contend with, and there isn’t actually any fire behind this particular smoke?

The Opposition

The club from Milton Keynes finds themselves back in League One for the first time since relegation in 2023, after finishing in second place in League Two, a point behind champions Bromley, last season. They were beaten 4-1 at Norwich City in the first round of the League Cup on Saturday, having been 3-0 down at half time before alleged Oxford target Ryan Wintle pulled a goal back. However, seeing as we’re largely dismissing United’s 2-0 defeat at Orient, it seems only fair to apply the same course of action to MK’s result.

In addition to Wintle, the club from Milton Keynes has made five other signings this summer, including former Middlesbrough winger Sam Silvera. One of their first signings was full back Cohen Bramall, who was out of contract at Luton Town, with Sam Nombe, Dan Barlaser, and Charlie Goode also adding depth to an already decent squad.

They all join former United players Curtis Nelson, Liam Kelly, Dan Crowley, Marvin Ekpiteta, and Jay Matete on the MK roster.

The Match

It’s always difficult to call the first match of the season, as there are a lot of unknowns surrounding both sides. At least the U’s don’t have the problem of new players gelling with the rest of the squad, although arguably that could apply to a number of the academy graduates who are earning their places maybe a tad earlier than they would without the embargo in place.

There were seven former and current academy players involved in the Orient game, five of whom saw action, with Sam Long and Tyler Goodrham starting and Leo Snowden, Aidan Elliott-Wheeler and Gatlin O’Donkor coming off the bench. Only James Golding and Harrison Bradney failed to get any game time.

In addition to the already known-about injured absentees (Frankie Kent, Jeon Jin-Woo, and Ruben Roosken), there were three other noteworthy players not involved: Greg Leigh had picked up a knock in training, so wasn’t risked; Brian De Keersmaecker was recovering from a long-term injury, followed by illness, followed by a bout of “babysitting”, so wasn’t match ready; and the aforementioned Mills, who remained sidelined having not trained with the group the previous week.

We don’t know the extent of Leigh’s injury, but we have been told – and who are we to doubt it – that both De Keersmaecker and Mills are back in full training. Whether either or both will be ready to be involved on Saturday isn’t known, although their absences will no doubt lead to plenty more speculation and rumour.

The home record against the team from Milton Keynes gives United the upper hand (just), with four wins and three defeats from the seven meetings. However, two of those defeats came in the previous two matches at the Kassam, so if historical stats bother you (and they shouldn’t), be bothered.

The sides’ first meeting in Oxford came in February 2017, when a Kane Hemmings goal was enough for United to take all three points.

In November 2017, the sides met in the Football League Trophy in a highly entertaining game that the opposition won by the odd goal in seven:

Back in league action two months later, the U’s opened the 2018 calendar year with a decent 3-1 win, thanks to goals from Wes Thomas, Gino van Kessel (main picture), and Jon Obika. The game was only marred by a red card for the magnificent Ricardinho.

In October 2020, a game played behind closed doors due to the Covid pandemic resulted in another win for the U’s, thanks to goals from Matty Taylor, Sam Long, and Olamide Shodipo, the game ending 3-2 to United.

The sides next met in Oxford in April 2022, when substitute Billy Bodin scored the only goal of the game (check out the MK goalie – none other than our very own Jamie Cumming):

After that, our home fortunes against Milton Keynes took a bit of a dive (and not in the Ashley Young sense). In September 2022, John Mousinho’s goal proved to be a mere consolation as the visitors won 2-1 (with Jamie still between the sticks for them):

The most recent meeting between the sides in this fair shire was another Football League Trophy affair, in September 2023. I’m not sure that anybody (from either side) was too bothered by the team from Buckinghamshire’s 1-0 win (Jamie not featuring for either side on this occasion).

So, how do we think this one will pan out? As mentioned above, first games are notoriously difficult to predict (and our predictive prowess is notoriously inaccurate). The bookies, for some reason have United as clear favourites, although whether that reflects the market or the proverbial finger in the air technique we’re not sure.

Putting aside the Orient result (which I’m very happy to do), the question really boils down to whether or not the United side is able to a) focus on the task at hand despite the distractions, and b) avoid any injuries (or Ricardinho-style recklessness) to further deplete the players available. Of course, there is also an element of whether or not De Keersmaecker and/or Mills are involved (I’m guessing not), which will inevitably be a boost to both the side and the supporters.

Given everything, I’m going to go for a narrow 1-0 win for our boys (although I won’t be shocked if the result is reversed, or it’s a low-scoring draw). Why do I reach that conclusion? Well, apart from being an incurable optimist, if you can’t predict a win on the season’s opening day, when everything is up for grabs, when can you?

See HERE for the full record between the sides.