Beano Transfer Saga II?

[Dr Bob]

http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Bristol- ... story.html

According to this the improved bid was £150,000. Makes you wonder a) what the club think is acceptable and b) just how much Slumdon must have offered.

£150k would be woefully inadequate. The club shouldn't even be thinking about it to any other team at that level.

If the club sell Beano for less than £500k and the club don't score a shed load of goals with the replacements, Thomas and even more so Wilder, will take a hell of a lot of heat and I doubt Wilder would survive.

I agree with the principle of what you say, but I suspect £500k is somewhat over-optimistic. Even if he was worth that much to us, because of his work-rate and all round play (when he is on form..., another club would have to see him in similar terms - and I just cannot see that.

[SmileyMan]

http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Bristol- ... story.html

According to this the improved bid was £150,000. Makes you wonder a) what the club think is acceptable and b) just how much Slumdon must have offered.

£150k would be woefully inadequate. The club shouldn't even be thinking about it to any other team at that level.

If the club sell Beano for less than £500k and the club don't score a shed load of goals with the replacements, Thomas and even more so Wilder, will take a hell of a lot of heat and I doubt Wilder would survive.

I agree with the principle of what you say, but I suspect £500k is somewhat over-optimistic. Even if he was worth that much to us, because of his work-rate and all round play (when he is on form..., another club would have to see him in similar terms - and I just cannot see that.

It's not over-optimistic, it's a question of value.

Beano's raw value is his ability as a player. However, when the buying club is a rival in the league, there's also the possibility (about 99.99% on past experience) of him scoring against us and costing us valuable league points. Then factor in his popularity with the fans (who would not want him to leave for a rival club, or for too little money) and also Wilder's poor track record with finding and keeping good quality strikers.

So in short, the price another club has to pay for him has to incorporate all of these. Money is of absolutely no use unless you can invest it to improve net performance.

[joepoolman]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18448002

Should we be worried??? Seemed to remember their name linked in the past.........

I'd be shocked if Oxford were willing to &quotrelease&quot him after they turned down bids. Also it's likely that AFCB would have had to have a bid accepted to contact Beano and seeing as OUFC were so public with the Bristol bids I'd suspect that that's unlikely.

[John Byrne's Underpants]

Beano worth £500K? In which universe exactly?

He's not that good and is replaceable. The fact that he is our 'best' striker and top scorer probably says more about the quality of our other strikers than it does about Beano. To that end, my major concern is Wilder's ability to replace him if the need should arise. His track record on strikers so far isn't exactly great...

[Baboo]

http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Bristol- ... story.html

According to this the improved bid was £150,000. Makes you wonder a) what the club think is acceptable and b) just how much Slumdon must have offered.

£150k would be woefully inadequate. The club shouldn't even be thinking about it to any other team at that level.

If the club sell Beano for less than £500k and the club don't score a shed load of goals with the replacements, Thomas and even more so Wilder, will take a hell of a lot of heat and I doubt Wilder would survive.

And if he stays, doesn't perform and doesn't score goals, who will take the heat then, assuming there will be some heat?

[SmileyMan]

[quote=&quotBaboo]And if he stays, doesn't perform and doesn't score goals, who will take the heat then, assuming there will be some heat?[/quote]
Sunk costs fallacy. The logical question is this: &quotWhat amount of money will enable the club to improve, in the absence of Beano?&quot That is what sets the selling price.

It's a bit like the stadium in reverse. It isn't worth, in terms of land and building costs, the price that Kassam is asking for it. The selling price is set by he fact that there is a guaranteed tenant, and good anciallary income to be derived from the presence of the tenant, and the very likely opposition of the local planners to any alternative stadium being built.

Value has very little to do with costs. Proven League 2 strikers are a rare commodity, and supply outstrips demand. In fact, the real question is: why aren't we investing in a top class forwards coach to work with improving the players we have, and uncovering any potential diamonds in the youths?

[Ancient Colin]

What sets the selling price is the price someone is prepared to pay for him, not what we want.

I must admit I find the adulation of JC all a bit mystifying. He was dreadful last season, truly dreadful (and not hugely better the season before). His ball control is terrible, he can't hold the ball up to bring players into the game, he isn't big enough or a good enough target player to win headers in league two (so most of the hoofs come straight back at us), at this level he doesn't have the instincts to find space. I really hope I am wrong about this and he'll enable his supporters here to ram this post down my throat, but I just don't get it. Let me be even more radical. In the early season, when Smalley came on, he'd get hell from the fans because he wasn't JC, but for me, he showed better movement, better control and better sense of where to be for opportunities ... albeit with no sign of an ability to convert those positions into goals. But those things were ignored because he was the bete noire. I'd love for Constable to prove to me that he really is a quality striker at our level or above ... but at the moment I just don't believe it and these big transfer figures seem to me to be utterly fanciful (and if true we should bite the hand off anyone offering them).

[Dartford Ox]

And if he stays, doesn't perform and doesn't score goals, who will take the heat then, assuming there will be some heat?

Sunk costs fallacy. The logical question is this: &quotWhat amount of money will enable the club to improve, in the absence of Beano?&quot That is what sets the selling price.

It's a bit like the stadium in reverse. It isn't worth, in terms of land and building costs, the price that Kassam is asking for it. The selling price is set by he fact that there is a guaranteed tenant, and good anciallary income to be derived from the presence of the tenant, and the very likely opposition of the local planners to any alternative stadium being built.

Value has very little to do with costs. Proven League 2 strikers are a rare commodity, and supply outstrips demand. In fact, the real question is: why aren't we investing in a top class forwards coach to work with improving the players we have, and uncovering any potential diamonds in the youths?

[/quote][/quote]

Your 'aving a larf.

[SmileyMan]

What sets the selling price is the price someone is prepared to pay for him, not what we want.

I think your house is worth a fiver, now sell it to me for that.

Oh right, doesn't work that way. Carry on.

As for 'avin a larf, how many really good strikers are there in League 2? Apart from bloody Midson of course.

[GodalmingYellow]

Beano worth £500K? In which universe exactly?

He's not that good and is replaceable. The fact that he is our 'best' striker and top scorer probably says more about the quality of our other strikers than it does about Beano. To that end, my major concern is Wilder's ability to replace him if the need should arise. His track record on strikers so far isn't exactly great...

You do make me laugh.

[GodalmingYellow]

What sets the selling price is the price someone is prepared to pay for him, not what we want.

I must admit I find the adulation of JC all a bit mystifying. He was dreadful last season, truly dreadful (and not hugely better the season before). His ball control is terrible, he can't hold the ball up to bring players into the game, he isn't big enough or a good enough target player to win headers in league two (so most of the hoofs come straight back at us), at this level he doesn't have the instincts to find space. I really hope I am wrong about this and he'll enable his supporters here to ram this post down my throat, but I just don't get it. Let me be even more radical. In the early season, when Smalley came on, he'd get hell from the fans because he wasn't JC, but for me, he showed better movement, better control and better sense of where to be for opportunities ... albeit with no sign of an ability to convert those positions into goals. But those things were ignored because he was the bete noire. I'd love for Constable to prove to me that he really is a quality striker at our level or above ... but at the moment I just don't believe it and these big transfer figures seem to me to be utterly fanciful (and if true we should bite the hand off anyone offering them).

No what sets the selling price of anything is the agreement between buyer AND seller on the price.

The age old adage that something is only worth what someone will pay for it is bollocks. A buyer can't buy, if the seller won't sell at the price the buyer wants to pay.

Beano was not dreadful last season. The team was dreadful at creating goal scoring opportunities. Look at the total goals scored by the team, or how many the other strikers scored for evidence. Beano scored 1 goal in every 3 games, which is hardly horrific.

Some people can't see for looking.

To improve a team you don't get rid of your best players, you get rid of your worst players. If you can't get rid of your worst players, you point the finger at the manager, not the best players.

Beano is, by some distance, the best asset this club has had since Joey Beauchamp, but then I'm sure some on here were similarly clamouring for Beauchamp to go whenever he failed to score.

[Dr Bob]

How is that bollocks, GY? A sale will go ahead if a buyer agrees with the seller's price. If not, there is no sale. Ergo the transaction requires a willing buyer at that price, regardless of the seller's valuation (that not being the same thing as price). Your argument rests on the existence of an objective sense of price which, in turn, matches the seller's valuation.

BTW 19 players scored more goals than Beano last season (another 9 matched his 11 goals). Those 19 players represented 16 different clubs. Now, SmileyMan, that does not mean that they are all 'better' than Beano, but the sheer number suggests you are rather misguided to think only Midson falls into that category.

Even if (to get the economics right) demand outstrips supply, why would anybody be willing to pay £500k for Beano - especially as it appears even the club's valuation is less than that figure (ie they would be willing to accept rather less than that)?

There is another issue about all this which nobody has mentioned. Does anybody have any inside information on whether all this speculation is becoming a negative influence on either Beano himself, or the group of players as a whole? If the answer here is yes, then that will presumably reduce what the club would be willing to accept.

[GodalmingYellow]

How is that bollocks, GY? A sale will go ahead if a buyer agrees with the seller's price. If not, there is no sale. Ergo the transaction requires a willing buyer at that price, regardless of the seller's valuation (that not being the same thing as price). Your argument rests on the existence of an objective sense of price which, in turn, matches the seller's valuation.

BTW 19 players scored more goals than Beano last season (another 9 matched his 11 goals). Those 19 players represented 16 different clubs. Now, SmileyMan, that does not mean that they are all 'better' than Beano, but the sheer number suggests you are rather misguided to think only Midson falls into that category.

Even if (to get the economics right) demand outstrips supply, why would anybody be willing to pay £500k for Beano - especially as it appears even the club's valuation is less than that figure (ie they would be willing to accept rather less than that)?

There is another issue about all this which nobody has mentioned. Does anybody have any inside information on whether all this speculation is becoming a negative influence on either Beano himself, or the group of players as a whole? If the answer here is yes, then that will presumably reduce what the club would be willing to accept.

Not true. Your argument rests on the bizarre notion that a buyer will pay more than they value an item, an argument which has no logic at all. The amount a buyer will pay for something is the same as the amount that they value the item. Whilst a seller can't sell if a buyer doesn't agree the seller's valuation, neither can a buyer buy if a seller doesn't agree with the buyer's valuation. Ergo, it is not the buyer's decision alone as to valuation. Ergo the age old adage that something is worth only what a buyer will pay is bollocks. It is worth what a buyer and seller agree it is worth. If you came to Godalming as a buyer to buy a 4 bedroom detached house for £500k, you would simply not be able to do so, even though that was all you were willing to pay. Your valuation as a buyer has no impact on your ability to buy. Therefore you change your valuation, or you leave empty handed.

That 19 players scored more than Beano in other teams adds to the case that OUFC as a team were not very good at creating chances. That Beano scored 1 in 3 games is arguably borderline miraculous in that Wilder team and set up.

It matters not whether someone else offers to pay £500k for Beano. He is worth that much to OUFC and to prevent him getting into an opposition side and because of the cost and risk associated with buying a replacement.

[Myles Francis]

Not true. Your argument rests on the bizarre notion that a buyer will pay more than they value an item, an argument which has no logic at all. The amount a buyer will pay for something is the same as the amount that they value the item. Whilst a seller can't sell if a buyer doesn't agree the seller's valuation, neither can a buyer buy if a seller doesn't agree with the buyer's valuation. Ergo, it is not the buyer's decision alone as to valuation. Ergo the age old adage that something is worth only what a buyer will pay is bollocks. It is worth what a buyer and seller agree it is worth. If you came to Godalming as a buyer to buy a 4 bedroom detached house for £500k, you would simply not be able to do so, even though that was all you were willing to pay. Your valuation as a buyer has no impact on your ability to buy. Therefore you change your valuation, or you leave empty handed.

It's certainly not a bizarre notion that a buyer will pay more than they value an item. For &quotemotional&quot purchases such as houses, buyers frequently do precisely that - especially if they are in competition with somebody else. Yes, it may be argued that they DO value the item that highly because they are prepared to pay that price, but they are aware that they are paying more than it it really &quotworth&quot. And I'm sure most (if not all) of us can think of occasions when we know we've paid over the odds for something.

To continue the housing analogy, if nobody was prepared to pay more than £500k for the detached house in Godalming, the seller would have to make a decision on either dropping their price or not selling at all. So, as a one-on-one scenario, the buyer may not have any impact on the seller's asking price but the market overall can have that impact.

It matters not whether someone else offers to pay £500k for Beano. He is worth that much to OUFC and to prevent him getting into an opposition side and because of the cost and risk associated with buying a replacement.

What you're coming up with here is not an objective valuation of the player. It's more a hugely inflated figure based on the notion that Beano is so important to OUFC that he should not be sold, and ignoring what he's actually &quotworth&quot in the market. It's like putting a £1m valuation on a two bed terraced house in Godalming arguing that the property must be worth that because of the risk that anywhere you move to will not feel quite as homely!

To say a Division 4 player is worth £500k is frankly ludicrous - even Crawley wouldn't pay that sort of money. You may as well say he's worth £10million because nobody would pay that sort of price.

[SmileyMan]

Try a different analogy Smiley's Coffee Emporium!

In the Emporium, we have a rather old, but very elegant espresso machine, which we use to serve coffee to our customers. One morning, a couple of people come into the shop asking to buy the machine,

The first is a scrap metal dealer. He can see that the machine is a substantial mass of steel and chrome, so he offers me £75 for the weight of the metal. I politely refuse, because without the coffee machine, I can't make coffee and I would be unable to run the business. A new machine would cost me £500, so that's a fairly simple decision.

Next is an antiques dealer. He knows a few trendy customers who would love a genuine classic espresso maker in their kitchens, and he thinks he can buy it from me for £600 and still make a tidy profit. At least this time I can replace the machine with a new one and make a little bit extra cash on the side. But the old machine adds an air of class the the shop that would be missed with a newer model, so again I refuse.

In short, the amount of money for which I would be prepared to sell the machine exceeds its value in two different buyers' markets. The reason it is valued higher in my company's market is because a) without a coffee machine I can't make coffee, b) I'm rather attached to my existing machine and it works perfectly well at its primary function and c) selling coffee machines is not a part of my core business.

I think I just compared James Constable to an antique espresso machine....but broadly speaking: a) without a striker we can't win games, b) we're rather attached to our existing striker and c) seling players is not part of our core business (if it were, we'd invest a hell of a lot more in the youth coaching)